Unranked Cal “Almost” [Key word] Beat #8 Miami. We like to look for insights, examples and learning opportunities in other professional arenas, including sports. On October 5, 2024, the #8 ranked Miami Hurricanes traveled to Berkeley to play the unranked California Golden Bears in college football. Miami was a heavy favorite at -10.5.
The “Calgorithm” Seemed to Be Working. Cal surprised everyone by leading 35-18 after three quarters. Great coaching and execution was on display as Cal scored quickly on three big-plays of 57 yards, 66 yards and a 40-yard interception return for a touchdown. In fact, things were looking so good for the Bears that with 12:16 to go in the 4th quarter, Cal had a 99.3% probability of winning (i.e. 0.7% chance of losing) and pulling off a MAJOR upset. At 5:43 to go in the 4th quarter, Cal has a 98.3% probability of winning the game. (Probabilities from ESPN). Unfortunately, long time Cal fans knew victory was FAR from a sure thing.
With a 99.3% chance of winning in the 4th quarter, Cal obviously won right? Well, first, anyone who asks that question does not know their Cal football history. Sometimes when things are going well, we might miss the proverbial “boiling frog.” Here, despite the big lead, there was a serious problem developing for Cal. Yes, Cal had three quick strikes for scores, but Miami started to drive on the Bears defense — fatiguing the defense. Meanwhile Cal’s offense couldn’t seem to find another big play, had trouble staying on the field and ….the game wasn’t over.
Reversion to the Mean is Strong. For the purposes this newsletter, we could theorize that for three quarters Cal was “over” performing — great team, well coached — and over performing against another great team, well-coached that was supposed to be a much better team coming into the game. Over the balance of the 3rd quarter and through the 4th quarter, Miami started to perform as expected and perhaps so did Cal. A picture is worth a thousand words, and this picture shows the final score and probability of victory.
Lessons and Takeaways.
1. When things are going well on the surface — in life, sports and business — it is good to enjoy it. It also pays to look around at what might not be going so well. In business they call it de-risking operations or de-risking cash flows. A good lawyer can help you with that.
2. Analytics and probabilities need to be viewed in context. Yes, Cal had a nearly 100% probability of winning the game late in the 4th quarter, but before the game, they had almost no chance.
3. Keep playing, whether you are ahead or behind. “It ain’t over until it is over.”
4. Sometimes experience knows more than Analytics and AI. Many experienced Cal fans did not believe the probability numbers. What did they know from experience that the probabilities did not? They’d seen Cal suffer crazy, improbable losses many times over the years. This was another one! When evaluating opportunities in business and life, it helps to have experienced counsel on your side.
5. The term “Continuous Improvement” could be viewed an effort to improve the “mean” so when we “regress to the mean” it still lands at a pretty high level. For businesses and real estate operations adding technology systems, improving operating processes and good legal counsel all help raise the mean.
6. It was still the best game in college football that weekend. #GoBears
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